Thoughts from a villainous mind…

Fantasy baseball is not a game won and lost in the first round of a draft or with the most expensive player in an auction.  You win a league by seeing the potential in an obscure player before anyone else.  I have had success in this with Casey McGeehee and Martin Prado this year.  Both, at the beginning of the year were owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues.  Now both are STARTED in more than 70%.  Ridiculous.  While your streaks of genius might not be quite as profound, heed my advice to come closer to the top of your league.

Also, how about those Milwaukee Brewers beating Pittsburgh 20-0?  They just have too much talent not to go on a run at some point and this 4-game win streak may be the beginning.

Here are some players who will have huge rises in % owned over the next few weeks:

Brett Gardner OF (29%)- I’ve already owned him once this year and he is a potentially great 3-category player.  He will get a ton of steals and, while his batting average will likely drop slightly, there is no reason to think he can’t hit around .290 or so.  Hitting in the Yankees lineup, unfortunately, also helps him immensely in runs.

Ty Wigginton 1B, 2B, 3B (34%)- Wigginton’s success deserves to be reemphasized from this morning.  Even though virtually every Baltimore game appears to be Iron Man going up against Magneto (think about it), the team has a few fantasy commodities.  Wigginton has already hit 5 home runs this year.  Although he hasn’t played a full season since 2003, the Orioles might be the exact team bad enough to let him play.  Wigginton’s position flexibility and respectable power from middle infield spots make him an ownable option in many leagues.

Dallas Braden P (50%)- So I own Braden in my league.  I was incredibly nervous this morning about putting him up against the Yankees, but he hasn’t allowed a run through 4.  If you are lucky enough to be in the half of leagues where he is not owned, get him now.  Pitching this well against the Yankees will surely spike his value and give his season legitimacy.

I’ll let Ethan deal with the streaming advice and I’ll talk about closers for a second.  In most leagues, all closers are owned no matter how much they suck (except Franklin Morales, you have to draw a line somewhere).  The key to winning saves is to pick up the guys who are going to replace the awful closers.  Here are a couple of situations worth watching:

Brian Fuentes does not have the Angels job locked down.  After coming off an injury, he has struggled some.  Look for Fernando Rodney to continue getting saves.

Chad Qualls has been struggling for the D-Backs too.  If you want saves from that situation, pick up, umm, hmm, well…Morales will soon have competition for the title of worst closer in baseball.

The Chicago Cubs are not a situation worth watching.  Carlos Marmol has been dominant.  The Carlos Zambrano move is inexplicable, but it would be even more inexplicable to move Marmol out of the closer role.

And I know all of you just got scared we might have had a post on this blog not mentioning Heyward and since Ethan just went sabermetric on us this morning, I thought I’d take this opportunity to drop some more knowledge.

Heyward has a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .417.  Generally, this is a statistic that measures “luck” in hitting.  Heyward has been lucky so far, but not so lucky as to avoid striking out.  He is on pace to come in second, all-time, in strikeouts in a season.  Also, HALF of the fly balls he has hit so far in his career have been home runs.  Sustainable?  No.  Absolutely not.  Heyward will be great, but we should temper our expectations for his rookie season.  He will be good, not great.  Look at Griffey’s numbers in his rookie year.  And Heyward isn’t Griffey.

Again, it’s easy for young guys to succeed before pitchers can study their habits.  Once pitchers realize (for example) that breaking pitches will make a player’s knees buckle, the game becomes a bit more difficult.

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4 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Mojo Jojo on April 22, 2010 at 6:43 pm

    I wonder if the villainous Collin will ever use the blog to increase value of certain players (*cough* McGahee *cough*) for those reading from our league…

    Also, nice use of the Magneto-Iron Man. But you have to be careful dropping all these gems so early. What’s going to happen three weeks from now when you get sick of talking about Heyward and don’t have any “Marco Scutaro for $15″s to pull out?

    Reply

  2. Posted by Mojo Jojo on April 22, 2010 at 6:44 pm

    *McGeehee – got the Ravens on my mind. DRAFT NIGHT!!!

    Reply

  3. Posted by Holgash on April 23, 2010 at 12:25 pm

    Don’t forget about C.J. Wilson who shut down your Sox last night!!!!

    Reply

  4. […] Collin already regaled you of the tale of the Brewers’ beatdown of the Pirates, I feel the need to quickly re-hash a […]

    Reply

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